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Home» Articles » Can a past BMI predict the length of your life?

Can a past BMI predict the length of your life?

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Your weight history has everything to do with how long you live

By now, we have a great understanding of the obesity epidemic – it’s affecting men, women, and children around the world and considered a driving force behind chronic disease. Recently, researchers have made a few startling discoveries about body weight and how it can affect overall health. Not only can obesity compromise and shorten life, but gaining and losing weight, and even carrying a few extra pounds, could be enough to make you vulnerable to disease.

Can a past BMI predict the length of your life?

BMI ONLY SCRATCHES THE SURFACE

When the BMI, or Body Mass Index, tool was first introduced by Belgian mathematician and sociologist Adolphe Quetelet in 1830, it was designed to be a measuring device used for the purpose of “social physics.”1 The equation measured the ratio of human body weight to squared height and was ultimately used to reflect a body fat measurement for a general population. While most critics believe that BMI can’t accurately evaluate individual weight, researchers continue to rely on the tool as a marker within a broader assessment of group health.

The Mayo Clinic used this exact measuring device in 2014 within an international collaborative study to determine how body weight relates to mortality. In the study, researchers discovered that men and women with a larger waist circumference were more likely to die young and especially from chronic illnesses like cancer, heart disease, and respiratory problems – even with a healthy BMI.2

In this case, it would appear that the critics were right. Falling within a healthy BMI range was still not an accurate predictor of health and mortality. Carrying extra body fat around the belly was confirmed to be detrimental to health, even if a study participant was not obese or overweight. Data pulled from 11 different cohort studies of more than 600,000 people around the world showed that men with a 43-inch waist circumference or greater may live three years less on average than men with a 35- inch waist or less. Women with a 37-inch waist circumference or greater may live five years less than women with a 27-inch waist circumference or less.

A new study released in 2016 pulls the curtain back further. A research team from the Boston University School of Public Health and the University of Pennsylvania discovered yet another kink in the BMI- mortality relationship that has been presented to us. While most previous studies consider current BMI to be a general predictor for mortality and chronic disease – meaning, if you are overweight or obese, you could be in poor health – this research team discovered that it is BMI history that may make the most impact.3

When researchers used a lifetime testing model to gauge maximum BMI over a lifespan, compared to a brief “snapshot” of a study participant’s current weight, they uncovered a 27 per cent higher death rate for people with a history of a high BMI. Participants who had lost weight and were currently at a healthy weight still had a higher prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease compared to those remained at a high BMI. Researchers believe that some of this weight loss may have been caused by illness.

While it’s always beneficial to lose weight for the purpose of good health, researchers have used this particular study to unearth a hidden truth about lifelong BMI and mortality. Similar to a history of smoking, weight history may better reflect an individual’s current state of health and risk of death compared to a one-time BMI measurement.

SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE

If these studies tell us one thing, it is that obesity is a health issue that is not to be taken lightly. Unhealthy weight gain can hide within a healthy BMI range, and a larger-than-normal waist circumference can still pose a health risk. Being overweight or obese at any time in life can compromise good health, even after the extra pounds have been lost. Staying at a higher BMI can also increase the risk of developing 10 of the most common kinds of cancer, according to a 2014 study conducted on 5 million adults in the UK.4

Yes, maintaining a healthy weight is the best way to ensure that you will live a long and healthy life. But even if you have a high BMI in your history and have lost a significant amount of weight – a great accomplishment that should not be underestimated – there is still hope for good health in your future.

Blood-sugar stabilising compounds can make it easier to maintain a healthy weight, while buffering much of the damage that has been done by the fluctuating blood sugar levels that contribute to obesity. Cinnamon is one such natural compound that is known to regulate blood sugar, with the help of other obesity-fighting compounds like American ginseng, bitter melon, chromium, fenugreek, gymnema sylvestre, and nopal.

Chock-full of protective antioxidants, cinnamon has been hailed for its ability to reduce risk factors associated with diabetes and heart disease – but even more popular is cinnamon’s use as the “skinny spice.”5 Already confirmed to be a blood-sugar stabiliser, a 2012 study published in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics found that a daily dose of cinnamon could significantly reduce blood glucose up to several hours after eating, with the potential to store less sugar as body fat and aid in weight loss.6,7

If you’re looking for a little outside help to maintain a healthy BMI, this comes as welcome news. Cinnamon is a natural compound that can be taken daily to regulate blood sugar and keep the body at a stable weight. When combined with a balanced diet and exercise program, the benefits of cinnamon are almost unstoppable. One delicious spice could help to prevent the weight fluctuations that could shorten your life.

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Sources
1. Eknoyan, Garabed (2007). “Adolphe Quetelet (1796–1874)—the average man and indices of obesity”. Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation, 23 (1): 47–51.  doi:10.1093/ndt/gfm517. PMID 17890752.
2. James R. Cerhan, Steven C. Moore, Eric J. Jacobs, Cari M. Kitahara, Philip S. Rosenberg, Hans-Olov Adami, Jon O. Ebbert, Dallas R. English, Susan M. Gapstur, Graham G. Giles, Pamela L. Horn-Ross, Yikyung Park, Alpa V. Patel, Kim Robien, Elisabete Weiderpass, Walter C. Willett, Alicja Wolk, Anne Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Patricia Hartge, Leslie Bernstein, Amy Berrington de Gonzalez. A Pooled Analysis of Waist Circumference and Mortality in 650,000 Adults. Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 2014; 89 (3): 335 DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2013.11.011. 3. Andrew Stokes, Samuel H. Preston. Revealing the burden of obesity using weight histories. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, 2016; 201515472 DOI: 10.1073/ pnas.1515472113.
4. Krishnan Bhaskaran, Ian Douglas, Harriet Forbes, Isabel dos-Santos-Silva, David A Leon, Liam Smeeth. Body-mass index and risk of 22 specific cancers: a population-based cohort study of 5·24 million UK adults. The Lancet, 2014; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60892-8.
5. Anne-Marie Roussel, Isabelle Hininger, Rachida Benaraba, Tim N. Ziegenfuss, and Richard A. Anderson. Antioxidant Effects of a Cinnamon Extract in People with Impaired Fasting Glucose That Are Overweight or Obese. Journal of the American College of Nutrition, 2009 28: 16-21.
6. J Med Food. 2011 Sep;14(9):884-9. doi: 10.1089/jmf.2010.0180. Epub 2011 Apr 11.
7. J Acad Nutr Diet. 2012 Nov;112(11):1806-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jand.2012.07.037.

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Last updated: 24/5/2022